Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka has emerged as the most preferred opposition presidential candidate for the 2027 general elections, according to a new opinion poll released by the Centre for Africa Progress (CAP) on Wednesday July 23, 2025.

The survey, which was conducted between July 10 and July 13 across all 47 counties, shows Kalonzo commanding 36% support among registered voters, placing him ahead of other prominent opposition figures. Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i came second with 23%, followed by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua at 16%, Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya at 14%, Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua at 7%, while other candidates shared the remaining 4%.

CAP sampled 5,000 registered voters aged 18 and above using a random, multi-stage stratified sampling method. The methodology applied a proportionate to population size (PPS) approach to ensure balanced representation across the country. Data collection was carried out through telephone interviews and analyzed using SPSS and Microsoft Excel. The poll has a margin of error of ±1.5% at a 95% confidence level.

The poll also shed light on key national sentiments. Notably, 60% of respondents believe that it was a mistake for opposition leader Raila Odinga to join President William Ruto’s Broad-Based Government, suggesting a potential rift in public perception regarding the unity initiative. Meanwhile, 40% supported the move, viewing it as a step toward promoting national cohesion.

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When asked whether the country is headed in the right direction, 44% of Kenyans said it is on the wrong path, 34% felt it was headed in the right direction, while 22% remained uncertain.

Regarding performance and expectations from the Broad-Based Government, 48% of respondents believe President Ruto should be given more time to fulfill his campaign promises. However, 50% expressed disappointment in the Kenya Kwanza administration, while 2% were undecided.

The survey also gauged public opinion on the recent Gen-Z-led protests. A strong majority of 64% believe the demonstrations were necessary for addressing economic, political, and social injustices, both now and in the future. In contrast, 36% viewed the protests as a distraction from more pressing issues, particularly the struggling economy.

The findings from Centre for Africa Progress suggest that while Kalonzo is gaining ground as a key opposition figure ahead of 2027, the political landscape remains fluid, with significant public dissatisfaction over current governance and growing calls for reform led by the youth.

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